Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Finding a Bottom on BP


It’s been just about a month since the explosion of the Deepwater Horizon and BP has fallen ever since. The market, in a broader sense, has been in a panic and at some point BP will reach a bottom and prove to be an extremely smart play, especially with their dividend yield. I do not wish to go any further in depth on BP since everything has already been discussed on every medium you could imagine. But today I drew up this graph and it may be helpful in finding a bottom/entry point on BP. It shows the share price of BP for the last month against Exxon Mobil from 1989, one month before and three months after the Exxon Valdez situation. The S&P is also shown very faintly. As you can see the gap between BP and the S&P has been growing, and is much larger than that of Exxon. The crisis points are aligned and set at March 24th, 1989 on this particular graph. A month later Exxon would reach a low and would never look back. Will that happen for BP? It’s probably not comparable, considering Exxon had the inflation of the 90s to help it, but take this graph for what it's worth and formulate your own opinion.


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